Risk Assessment of Bauxite Maritime Logistics Based on Improved FMECA and Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Because of the many limitations traditional failure mode effect and criticality analysis (FMECA), an integrated risk assessment model with improved FMECA, fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBN), evidence reasoning (ER) is proposed. A new characterization parameter system constructed in model. rule base based on confidence structure by combining set theory expert knowledge, BN technology used to realize importance ranking hazard degree maritime logistics events. The ER weight distribution matrix can effectively integrate results event evaluation from overall perspective. effectiveness feasibility are verified carrying out a importing bauxite China. research show that priority events “pirates or terrorist attacks” “workers’ riots strikes” sequence. In addition, at medium- high-risk level as whole. proposed expected provide systematic framework for engineering field.